Moore's Law

For those who don't know about Moore's Law, it states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This means an exponential rise in computing power. The idea was posited by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel. And since the 1960's Moore's prediction has held true.

But no exponential rise can last indefinitely and indeed even Gordon Moore has stated that physical limits would prevent the continued rise in transistors. As transistors get smaller and smaller they will approach the size of atoms, which is a physical barrier that can't be crossed.

Now iSuppli has suggested that a barrier could be reached by 2014. Perhaps not a physical barrier but an economic one. In simple terms, the money invested in producing chips with smaller transistors will be so high that production costs will not be justifiable.

I hope that iSuppli has this one wrong. I want to see technology advance to absolute limits not economic ones. Even if (when) those physical limits are reached, new technologies or methods will evolve to compensate for the end of Moore's Law. Now I'm curious to see what kind of computers we will be using in 2015.

iSuppli

Moore's Law

Moore perdicts end to his own law.